US Treasuries halted their rally as traders braced for a hefty slate of bond sales this week.
The yield on 10-year debt rose three basis points to 4.25%, trimming the steepest drop in a year on Friday. The two-year yield was also up 3 basis points after falling the most since 2023.
The biggest week for sales of longer government bonds since May could weigh on prices as the Treasury offers $125 billion of new three-, 10- and 30-year notes. For now that’s put on hold Friday’s surge, which was triggered by surprisingly weak US jobs data and fresh speculation Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone more willing to aggressively cut interest rates.
Money markets assign an almost 80% chance the Fed will lower rates by a quarter-point in September, according to swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. While that’s down from Friday’s peak of 90%, it’s much higher than the 40% anticipated before the payroll data was published.
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